Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Day 2: Defending Champs, San Francisco Giants

Ok its day two so the second team on the list San Francisco.

2012 record 94-68 World Series Champs

The Giants bring back pretty much their entire core of players from last years championship squad with a few minor tweaks.
Lets start on the infield with reigning National League MVP Buster Poesy behind the plate. Now two years removed from his horrific ankle injury I think Poesy has an even better shot to improve on his numbers from last year. While hitting .336 again maybe a long shot .310 to .320 is a realistic number, and the 24 home-runs are nice he could bump that number into the low 30's with easy. Same goes for his RBI total, 103 is good but the Giants need him more in the 120 to 125 range this season. Poesy's back Hector Sanchez is a switch hitting catcher that many teams would love to have as a starter. Two years younger than Poesy the Giants have a chance to keep both of them long term but I don't see Buster moving to first base full time and any time soon especially with Brandon Belt at the position at the moment.
Moving to first, Belt had a rough go of it last season struggling to find his swing during a full year of big league ball. The third year major league player has been promoted quickly in the Giants system  and while he has needed time to develop he has the bat and the glove to play everyday at first and should figure things out this season and produce a 15-25 home run season and in the range of somewhere between 85-100 RBIs if all goes well. On the other hand if things keep on the same trend of last where he struggled early the Giants might not want to keep the talented player much in the same mold as the Diamondbacks trading Justin Upton this offseason.
Over to second base where Marcos Scutaro firmly took control of the poisson late in the year last season and didn't disappoint. Many outside observers questioned the move as both the Red Sox and the Rockies gave up on the aging veteran. The change of scenery was apparently just what he needed and guess what he produced a career year from the plate and parleyed that into a big offseason contract.
While I don't think he keeps up the .362 average he had in 61 games with San Fran. I do think he can hit somewhere in the .275-.285 range and be serviceable at second. The Giants definitely overpaid to keep him but with no alternative option he should give them a good season or two to find a player they like and develop them at second.
At the shortstop spot Brandon Crawford took over the spot full time and while he struggled from the plate his arm and glove showed he is going to be a big leaguer at that position for years to come.
The bat may never fully mature at the big league level and he doesn't have the typical speed of a shortstop he will hit somewhere in the .265 range and give you one of the best defenders at the position in the majors.
Rounding out the infield World Series MVP Pablo Sandoval mans the hot corner for the fourth season in a row. A wrist injury derailed much of the season for the Kung Fu Panda but by the time it healed the power was back in full force. Hitting 3 home runs off Justin Verlander showed just how much pop the Panda has. Always an up and down player last year saw 12 homers in the regular season with 63 RBIs but he has proven he can hit for power and should go for about 20-25 bombs and 85-95 ribbies.
The outfield looks a lot different for this years opening day than it did last season.
Angel Pagan comes into the season fully entrenched in center field with a brand new contract as well and should be the table setter once again for the team. A .275-.285 batting average with 20-30 steals and 5-10 homers from the lead off spot is likely.
Right field goes to the ever so awkward Hunter Pence. The mid-season acquisition struggled in his first handle full of games with his new team but of any Giant Pence is the most likely candidate for a bounce back year. He has 25-30 home run power and 100 RBI potential but on this team its more in the 20-25 range and 80 RBIs this season.
Left field goes to the man who saved Matt Cain's perfect game in Gregor Blanco. The speedy left give the team another option at lead off when Pagan has the day off but also gives the Giants one of the best defensive outfields in the division if not the league. A player that will most likely hit in the .250 range will have to stay near the bottom of the order but like Crawford his defense more than makes up for it.
The one area the Giants needed to improve on was the fourth outfielder spot and they hope to have that this year in former starting center fielder Andres Torres. Torres was a popular player during his first go around with the Giants but was traded to the Mets last season for Pagan and struggled. As a starter he doesn't have much value at this point but as the a fourth outfielder he should thrive.
The bench is should be rounded out by Brent Pill backing up the infield corners as well as providing insurance for the outfield.  Joaquin Arias provides the team with a do-everything utility guy who can fill in a third, second, short, and the outfield.
A player to watch is prospect Nick Noonan. The middle infielder could make the team out of spring training but most likely ends up in double or triple A to solidify his hitting but could eventually supplant Scutaro at second.

Projected line-up
1. CF Pagan
2. 2B Scutaro
3. C Poesy
4. 3B Sandoval/ RF Pence
5. RF Pence/1B Belt/3B Sandoval
6. 1B Belt/RF Pence
7. LF Blanco/SS Crawford 
8. SS Crawford/LF Blanco
9. Pitcher

The Giants pitching staff is top-5 in baseball right now and the only spot up for grabs is most likely the fifth spot in the rotation.
Matt Cain is the clear cut number one with a perfect game on his record and should push 20 wins with a 3 ERA. The number two spot goes to Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner lost his mechanics toward the end of last season but discovered them again in time for the playoffs and if he is healthy should put up 15-18 wins.
Three and four belong to the two-some of Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is a former Cy young winner but fell apart last season. If you finds the magic once again the Giants have four pitchers that can get to 15 wins with ease. Vogelsong is getting up there in age but was the number two starter in the world series and can approach 15 wins as well.
The fifth spot is a dicey one for the Giants as Barry Zito currently holds it down right know. In the final year of his monster contract he most likely leaves the Giants at the end of the year but he might not last that long. There is a couple of prospects that might take Zito's spot in the rotation but none that jump out to start the year but by mid season anything is possible at the five spot.
Closer Sergio Romo got baptized by fire last year in the post season and came out looking like the next dominate closer in a long line of Giants. From Rod Beck to Robb Nen to Brian Wilson, Romo is ready to fill the role this season.
Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt give the Giants a solid back end and they should be able to close out a lot of games.

Projected Starters:
1. Cain
2. Bumgarner
3. Lincecum
4. Vogelsong
5. Zito

Projected Bullpen:
Romo (Closer)
Casilla (Set-up)
Lopez
Affeldt
George Kontos
Mijares

Projected 2013 season 90-72, First place in the NL West on the high end 88-88, second to third in the NL West on the low end.

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